Israeli Nuclear Testing in Prince Edward Island and a Middle East Nuclear-Weapons-Free Zone

Satellite image of Dimona, Israeli nuclear facility.

by Mohammed Alkurashi

Background

The international norm against nuclear testing, as established today, is borne out of the legacy of nuclear explosions that left an indelible mark on humans and the environment. Prior to the drafting of the Comprehensive-Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), the world had the Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT). The latter Treaty prohibits open air, underwater, and outer space nuclear testing, but does not rule out underground nuclear testing. Despite the PTBT’s successor treaty being open for signature since 1996, the CTBT has yet to enter into force. This is due to Article XIV of the treaty which stipulates that certain States under Annex II must also sign and ratify the Treaty in order for it to enter into force. Listed below are all of the Annex II States, whose ratification is necessary for the Treaty’s entry into force, but have not ratified the Treaty:

With the exception of Egypt and Iran, all States in this list have definitively or are credibly suspected of having conducted nuclear tests. Moreover, only three of the listed States are located in the Middle East region, namely: Egypt, Iran, and Israel. 

The Vela Incident

On September 22, 1979, a U.S. satellite detected a double flash in the South Indian Ocean. The Vela incident, named after the satellite that caught it, prompted U.S. officials to believe that an atmospheric nuclear test had been conducted in secret. Indeed, a declassified CIA report concluded with high confidence that the U.S. satellite recorded a nuclear test believed to have been jointly conducted by Israel and South Africa. It is important to note that during the time of the incident, apartheid South Africa had good relations with the nascent state of Israel. South Africa has been supplying, since 1963, yellowcake (powdered uranium) to Israel without the safeguards necessary in the context of today’s world. In turn, this gave Israel the capability to develop nuclear weapons without the oversight of the West nor the East.  However, it is also important to note that the Vela incident was not the first discovery of the U.S. into Israel’s nuclear capability. In 1960, Israel had already been building a nuclear facility with assistance from France and Norway. During the final year of Eisenhower’s presidency, the U.S. failed to deter Israel from pursuing a nuclear weapons program, as those concerned in Washington, Dimona (Israel’s nuclear facility) was charaded as a “textiles factory”.

Nuclear ‘Ambiguity’ & The Samson Option

Today, Israel is suspected to have between 90 nuclear warheads, with enough plutonium to produce up to 200. As the only country in the Middle East not to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), President Nixon and Prime Minister Meir made a secret agreement in 1969 essentially codifying Israel’s nuclear ambiguity by deciding that Israel will not conduct any nuclear tests and in turn the U.S. would not pressure Israel to sign the NPT. You may notice the date of the Nixon-Meir agreement, 1969, preceding the Vela incident in 1979. What should have been a violation of the PTBT and the secret agreement indeed did not trigger U.S. domestic non-proliferation laws (such as the 1977 Glenn Amendment).

Aside from the ‘ambiguous’ nuclear posture that Israel has adopted, Israeli scholars expanded upon recommendations by groups previously known to advise Israeli leadership (such as the Project Daniel Group who closely advised Ariel Sharon) and called to formalize the Samson Option as an official nuclear doctrine. Israel, under an existential crisis has the capability and reach through their Jericho-III, Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), to mass murder citizens from all of the Middle East, all of Africa, all of Europe, and eastward into India and western parts of China. Israeli military historian Martin van Creveld said in reference to “transferring” Palestinians out from their land invoked Israel’s nuclear arsenal as an effective blackmail tool against Europe and the rest of the civilized world to accept Israel’s ethnic cleansing of Palestinians.

Conclusion

For those concerned with the nuclear non-proliferation architecture, and also for those concerned with long-term nuclear disarmament in the Middle East, the Vela incident and the failure of the U.S. to act decisively upon the discovery of Dimona’s true function, by following its own non-proliferation laws, has led to a region where Israel can routinely violate international law and norms while constantly being shielded from accountability. It becomes evident how one nuclear test in Africa has done more to erode international law than all (if any) efforts to uphold it.