The Frog's Malaise:
Nuclear Weapons and Human Survival
(Full Version with Appendixes)
by David Krieger*, June 2001
If a frog is
dropped into a pot of scalding water, it will sense the danger
and immediately jump out. However, if a frog is dropped into a
pot of tepid water and the water temperature is gradually raised,
the frog will succumb rather than trying to escape.
We humans are like the frog in this story. At the
onset of the Nuclear Age we were dropped into a pot of tepid water
and here we sit as the temperature of the water rises.
******
"We cannot bear the thought that human life
can disappear from this planet, least of all, by the action of
man. And yet the impossible, the unimaginable, has now become
possible. The future existence of the human species can no longer
be guaranteed. The human species is now an endangered species."
-Sir Joseph Rotblat
"Nuclear weapons are the enemy of humanity.
Indeed, they're not weapons at all. They're some species of biological
time bombs whose effects transcend time and space, poisoning the
earth and its inhabitants for generations to come."
-General George Lee Butler
The Rio Conference
When the United Nations Conference on Environment
and Development convened in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, nuclear weapons
- arguably the most serious threat to the human future - were
not on the agenda. It seems surrealistic that the leaders of the
world's nations gathered in Rio de Janeiro could devote nearly
two weeks to the subjects of the environment and sustainable development
without addressing, or at least acknowledging, the dangers of
nuclear weapons.
The Declaration issued from the Rio Conference
contains 27 principles. None of them mention nuclear dangers,
although one mentions warfare and one mentions peace. Principle
24 states: "Warfare is inherently destructive of sustainable
development. States shall therefore respect international law
providing protection for the environment in times of armed conflict
and cooperate in its further development, as necessary."
Surely if warfare is destructive of the environment, nuclear warfare
- if warfare would be an adequate way to conceptualize the extent
of the devastation and annihilation caused by the use of nuclear
weapons - would immeasurably aggravate the damage.
Nuclear warfare has the potential to destroy cities,
countries, even humanity itself. Given the magnitude of the potential
dangers of nuclear weapons, it is surprising that these dangers
did not rise to the level of inclusion in the Rio Conference.
Principle 25 of the Rio Declaration states: "Peace,
development and environmental protection are interdependent and
indivisible." While true, this principle also does not sound
an alarm regarding the magnitude of danger inherent in the nuclear
weapons policies of the states that possess these weapons.
One other principle of the Rio Declaration deserves
mention. Principle 1 states: "Human beings are at the center
of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to
a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature." Surely,
this would include freedom from nuclear annihilation. Perhaps
a corollary to this principle should be the oft-repeated statement
of those who survived the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki:
"Nuclear weapons and human beings cannot co-exist."
There are many possible explanations for why the
Rio Conference did not take up the issue of nuclear weapons. Perhaps
the delegates to the Rio Conference in 1992 had their hands full
with other problems related to environment and sustainable development,
of which there were many. Perhaps dealing with issues of nuclear
dangers seemed too confrontational to the nuclear weapons states.
Perhaps the organizers of the Rio Conference believed that nuclear
weapons issues would be better dealt with in disarmament forums.
Whatever their reasons for leaving nuclear weapons
and their dangers to humanity off the Rio agenda, the Conference
failed to deal with what is arguably the most acute present danger
to human survival, sustainable development and environmental security.
When the Conference was held in 1992 the Nuclear Age, which was
initiated by the dropping of an atomic bomb on Hiroshima in World
War II, was 47 years old. The temperature in the pot in which
the frog is treading water had grown very warm indeed.
Nuclear Weapons: Warnings, Promises and Failure
to Act
We are approaching the ten-year anniversary of
the Rio Conference, and the water temperature has continued to
rise. Not that there have not been warnings. Many of the greatest
individuals of the 20th century have spoken out against nuclear
weapons. The list is impressive: Albert Camus, Albert Einstein,
Bertrand Russell, Albert Schweitzer, Jacques Cousteau, Mikhail
Gorbachev, the XIVth Dalai Lama, Archbishop Desmond Tutu. Religious
leaders, military leaders and political leaders have spoken out.
Nobel Laureates have spoken out, but the frog still treads water
as the temperature rises.
Since the Rio Conference, there have been a number
of key events related to the elimination of nuclear weapons. At
the 1995 Review and Extension Conference of the Non-Proliferation
Treaty, the Treaty was extended indefinitely. At that time, the
nuclear weapons states promised the completion of negotiations
for a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the early conclusion of negotiations
for a ban on the production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons,
and "determined pursuit…of systematic and progressive
efforts to reduce nuclear weapons globally, with the ultimate
goals of eliminating those weapons…."
We have learned, however, that the promises of
the nuclear weapons states mean very little. A Comprehensive Test
Ban Treaty was completed, but has yet to be ratified by some key
states, including the United States and China. Negotiations on
a fissile material cut-off treaty have not yet gotten off the
ground. And the "determined pursuit" promise has led
only to systematic and progressive efforts to maintain a two-tier
structure of nuclear weapon "have" and "have-not"
states.
In 1996, the International Court of Justice considered
the legality of the threat or use of nuclear weapons. The Court
concluded that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would be generally
illegal, but could not decide whether or not it would be illegal
if the very survival of a state were at stake. The Court did make
clear, however, that there could be no legal threat or use if
such use would not discriminate between soldiers and civilians
or if such use would cause unnecessary suffering. It is difficult
to imagine any possible use of nuclear weapons that would not
violate these principles of international humanitarian law.
The Court was unanimous in concluding: "There
exists an obligation to pursue in good faith and bring to a conclusion
negotiations leading to nuclear disarmament in all its aspects
under strict and effective international control." The nuclear
weapons states have largely ignored this strong and clear opinion
of the highest court in the world.
In August 1996, the Canberra Commission on the
Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, composed of a distinguished group
of experts from throughout the world convened by the Australian
government, issued its report. The Commission stated: "The
proposition that nuclear weapons can be retained in perpetuity
and never used - accidentally or by decision - defies credibility.
The only complete defence is the elimination of nuclear weapons
and assurance they will never be produced again."
The Canberra Commission viewed the existing situation
of a world divided into nuclear "haves" and "have-nots"
as discriminatory, unstable and therefore unsustainable. They
wrote: "Nuclear weapons are held by a handful of states which
insist that these weapons provide unique security benefits, and
yet reserve uniquely to themselves the right to own them. This
situation is highly discriminatory and thus unstable; it cannot
be sustained. The possession of nuclear weapons by any state is
a constant stimulus to other states to acquire them."
The Canberra Commission recommended a series of
immediate steps: taking nuclear forces off alert; removal of warheads
from delivery vehicles; ending deployment of non-strategic nuclear
weapons; ending nuclear testing; initiating negotiations to further
reduce United States and Russian nuclear arsenals; and agreement
amongst the nuclear weapons states of reciprocal no first use
undertakings, and of a non-use undertaking by them in relation
to the non-nuclear weapon states.
In December 1996, a group of some 60 retired generals
and admirals from throughout the world issued a statement in which
they said: "We, military professionals, who have devoted
our lives to the national security of our countries and our peoples,
are convinced that the continuing existence of nuclear weapons
in the armories of nuclear powers, and the ever present threat
of acquisition of these weapons by others, constitute a peril
to global peace and security and to the safety and survival of
the people we are dedicated to protect." Among other urgently
needed steps, the generals and admirals agreed that "long-term
international nuclear policy must be based on the declared principle
of continuous, complete and irrevocable elimination of nuclear
weapons."
In February 1998, 117 civilian leaders, including
47 past or present presidents and prime ministers, issued a statement
calling the threat of nuclear conflict "intolerable,"
and invoking a "moral imperative" for the elimination
of nuclear weapons. They called, as had the Canberra Commission,
for immediate steps to reduce nuclear dangers, including the development
of "a plan for eventual implementation, achievement and enforcement
of the distant but final goal of elimination." They also
called for consideration of a ban on the production and possession
of large, long-range ballistic missiles.
"The world is not condemned to live forever
with threats of nuclear conflict, or the anxious fragile peace
imposed by nuclear deterrence," the civilian leaders stated.
"Such threats are intolerable and such a peace unworthy.
The sheer destructiveness of nuclear weapons invokes a moral imperative
for their elimination. That is our mandate. Let us begin."
In May 1998, India demonstrated the unsustainability
of the global nuclear balance by testing nuclear weapons with
Pakistan following closely in India's footsteps. Both countries
demonstrated their nuclear capabilities, and held mass public
demonstrations lauding the scientists and political leaders who
had given them these new powers. South Asia suddenly became a
flashpoint of nuclear danger.
In June 1998, the foreign ministers of eight middle
power states (Brazil, Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, Slovenia,
South Africa and Sweden) expressed their concern for the lack
of progress on nuclear disarmament and called for action by the
nuclear weapons states. In a Joint Declaration issued in Dublin
on June 9th, the foreign ministers called for a New Agenda to
achieve a nuclear weapons-free world. They stated: "We can
no longer remain complacent at the reluctance of the nuclear-weapon
states and the three nuclear-weapons-capable states to take that
fundamental and requisite step, namely a clear commitment to the
speedy, final and total elimination of their nuclear weapons and
nuclear weapons capability and we urge them to take that step
now."
More recently, at the 2000 Non-Proliferation Review
Conference, the parties to the treaty, led by the middle power
states calling for a New Agenda, agreed to 13 practical steps
to further the goal of nuclear disarmament. Among the new promises
made by the nuclear weapons states were "an unequivocal undertaking…to
accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals…"
and a promise to preserve and strengthen the Anti-Ballistic Missile
Treaty "as a cornerstone of strategic stability and as a
basis for further reductions of strategic offensive weapons…."
The nuclear weapons states have thus far shown no progress on
the first promise, and the US is thwarting the second promise
by threatening to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty
in order to deploy a National Missile Defense system.
Nuclear Strategy
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States
has been the preeminent military and economic power in the world.
The United States is the leader of NATO and has the potential
to lead the world to achieve the promises of eliminating nuclear
weapons. The United States, however, has not demonstrated any
inclination to lead in this direction. Through eight years of
the Clinton administration, the United States made no further
agreements toward achieving nuclear disarmament. In fact, under
Clinton's leadership the United States and Russia postponed the
date to achieve the disarmament levels set forth in the START
II agreement from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2007. Russian
President Putin offered to reduce strategic nuclear arsenals in
a START III agreement from START II levels of 3,500 to 1,500 or
lower. Clinton failed to respond. He may be remembered as the
President who had the greatest opportunity to end the nuclear
weapons threat but lacked the vision and/or courage to do so.
Whereas Clinton may have lacked vision altogether
in the area of nuclear disarmament, George Bush has a confused
and dangerous vision. Bush sees the primary nuclear threat to
the United States arising from so-called "rogue" nations
such as Iran, Iraq and North Korea. He seeks to build a missile
shield to protect the United States, its friends, allies and troops
from a ballistic missile attack by such smaller hostile states.
To do so, he would abrogate the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty,
the treaty the US promised to preserve and strengthen at the 2000
Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference. This has led to expressions
of grave concern on the part of Russia, China and a number of
US allies. US deployment of a National Missile Defense, as envisaged
by Bush, could result in undermining the entire structure of arms
control agreements that have been built up over many decades and
initiate new arms races.
While Bush has also made more positive proposals
for the unilateral reduction of the size of the US nuclear arsenal
to the lowest level consistent with national security and for
further de-alerting of the US nuclear arsenal, these proposals
would provide a better basis for global stability if they were
made in the context of multilateral agreements and were made irreversible.
The US has also continued to develop a new nuclear warhead, the
B61-11, a warhead claimed to be capable of earth penetration and
bunker busting. It has a smaller yield and is presumably a more
usable nuclear warhead. The US has also indicated in a 1997 Presidential
Decision Directive (PDD 60) that it would use nuclear weapons
in response to a chemical or biological weapons attack on the
US, its troops or allies.
The bottom line is that the US and the other nuclear
weapons states seem intent upon continuing to rely upon their
nuclear weapons for the indefinite future, regardless of their
promises made in the context of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and
the destructive effects on the prospects for global security resulting
from their shortsighted policies.
The frog grows more lethargic as the water temperature
rises.
Sustainability
Nuclear weapons have not been used in warfare since
Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This has led to the comforting illusion
that they will never be used again. But as long as these weapons
exist in the arsenals of the world's nuclear weapons states, there
remains the possibility that they will be used - by accident or
design. So long as these weapons exist, they will also be a spur
and incitement to the proliferation of nuclear weapons to other
countries.
What is the likelihood that nuclear weapons will
be used again in warfare? This is perhaps an impossible question
to answer, but we know that the answer is not zero. We also know
that relations between states can alter rapidly. Further, we know
that there have been numerous instances in which states have considered
using nuclear weapons or in which they have come close to accidental
launches. One such incident occurred in 1995 when the Russians
mistook a joint US-Norwegian rocket launch for an attack on their
country. President Yeltsin, a man noted for excessive drinking,
was awakened in the middle of the night to make the decision on
whether or not to launch a retaliatory strike against the US.
Yeltsin extended the time allotted to him to make the decision,
and disaster was averted when it became clear that the missile
was not aimed at Russia.
Nuclear weapons do not protect any country, and
it makes no sense to endanger the security of the world in a futile
attempt to provide security to a few countries. Therefore, nuclear
weapons must be abolished. This goal is in accord with security
interests, international law and the moral foundation of all religions.
Sustainable development presupposes protecting
natural resources and the environment. The mining of uranium,
the testing of nuclear weapons, and the ongoing problems of storing
nuclear wastes present serious challenges to the environment and
human health. The greatest challenge to sustainability, however,
comes from the very existence of nuclear weapons, which pose a
threat to humanity and all living things that surpasses other
dangers. This threat must be addressed, and cannot be swept aside
by those who otherwise express concern for the planet's well being.
When the International Court of Justice rendered
its opinion on the legality of the threat or use of nuclear weapons,
the Court pointed out: "The destructive power of nuclear
weapons cannot be contained in either space or time. They have
the potential to destroy all civilization and the entire ecosystem
of the planet." In this way nuclear weapons are unique.
How Did the Frog Get Into the Pot?
The frog did not just jump into the pot. Someone
dropped it in, someone with his own motivations. Likewise, the
situation in which we now find ourselves with respect to nuclear
weapons did not just occur. It was created and maintained by national
leaders and others with their own motivations for wanting nuclear
weapons and tolerating nuclear dangers.
The Nuclear Age began with reasonable intentions.
Émigré scientists, refugees of Hitler's policies
in Germany, worried about the danger of Hitler developing a nuclear
weapon and its implications for the war in Europe. Leo Szilard,
a brilliant Hungarian scientist, convinced his friend Albert Einstein
to sign a letter to President Roosevelt warning of this danger.
The letter encouraged Roosevelt to initiate a project to explore
the creation of weapons that would unlock the power of the atom.
The project began slowly, but when the United States entered World
War II it expanded dramatically. Thousands of scientists and engineers
worked on the top-secret Manhattan Project that resulted in the
creation of the world's first atomic weapons.
Many of the scientists who had worked on creating
the atomic bomb, led by Leo Szilard, tried to convince Roosevelt
and then Truman that the bomb should not be used against Japan.
A petition to President Truman drafted by Szilard and signed by
68 members of the Metallurgical Laboratory in Chicago, stated:
"The development of atomic power will provide the nations
with new weapons of destruction. The atomic bombs at our disposal
represent only the first step in this direction, and there is
almost no limit to the destructive power which will become available
in the course of their future development. Thus a nation which
sets the precedent of using these newly liberated forces of nature
for purposes of destruction may have to bear the responsibility
of opening the door to an era of devastation on an unimaginable
scale."
The petition to President Truman was dated July
17, 1945, less than three weeks before the first atomic weapon
was used at Hiroshima. When President Truman heard of the bomb's
"success" at Hiroshima, he said, "This is the greatest
thing in history." Truman believed that it might take the
Soviet Union 20 years to develop an atomic bomb. It took them
four years. From that point until the breakup of the Soviet Union
in 1991 the world experienced a nuclear arms race that would result
in deployment of tens of thousands of ever more powerful nuclear
weapons capable of destroying most life on Earth.
Understanding the Frog's Malaise
The first thing that is necessary to understand
about our present situation is that there is not just one frog
in the pot. We are all in a nuclear cauldron, potentially sharing
a common tragic fate. Some have already died - the victims of
Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the uranium miners, the victims of nuclear
experiments, the downwinders of nuclear tests, the soldiers and
indigenous peoples deliberately exposed to nuclear tests. There
will also be countless future generations that will pay the price
-- in genetic mutations, deformities, cancers and leukemias --
of the radioactive legacy of preparing for nuclear war.
The second thing necessary to understand is that
those who have kept the frog in the pot are able to ignore the
dangers to the frog so long as their goals are achieved. Many
politicians, military leaders and academics believe that nuclear
weapons make them more secure. In many respects, they do not believe
that they are in the pot with the rest of us or, if they do, they
believe that their personal gain outweighs the risks of disaster.
They are true believers and they have constructed deeply held
myths, which they have perpetuated to support their recklessness.
The third thing necessary to understand is that
there is no technological fix to the frog's dilemma. No fancy
umbrella over the pot will protect the frog from demise. The nuclear
dilemma will not be resolved by a missile shield to protect against
so-called "rogue" nations. Not only is it unlikely that
a missile shield could ever be effective, but it is a way for
certain countries to continue to rely upon nuclear weapons. A
US missile shield will also be guaranteed to halt progress on
nuclear disarmament with Russia and lead to new nuclear arms races
in Asia. It is a costly and dangerous approach, which will decrease
rather than increase security from nuclear dangers.
What Keeps the Frog in the Pot?
It was more than an oversight that nuclear weapons
issues were not on the agenda at the Rio Conference, the world's
most significant conference for environment and sustainable development.
Keeping the frog in the pot has been a matter of policy for the
nuclear weapons states, and this policy has not been effectively
challenged.
If the frog continues treading water as the temperature
rises, it will eventually die. Why does the frog fail to take
action to save itself while the water temperature rises?
If we can ascribe to the frog some human reasoning skills and
other human characteristics, the following may be some of the
principal factors that explain its failure to act, and also ours.
Ignorance. The frog
may fail to recognize the dilemma. It may be unable to predict
the consequences of being in water in which the temperature is
steadily rising.
Complacency. The
frog may feel comfortable in the warming water. It may believe
that because nothing bad has happened yet, nothing bad will happen
in the future.
Deference to Authority.
The frog may believe that others are in control of the thermostat
and that it has no power to change the conditions in which it
finds itself.
Sense of Powerlessness.
The frog may fail to realize its own power to affect change, and
believe that there is nothing it can do to improve its situation.
Fear. The frog may
have concluded that, although there are dangers in the pot, the
dangers outside the pot are even greater. Thus, it fails to take
action, even though it could do so.
Economic Advantage.
The frog may believe that there are greater short-term rewards
for staying in the pot than jumping out.
Conformity. The frog
may see other frogs treading water in the pot and not want to
appear different by sounding an alarm or acting on its own initiative.
Marginalization.
The frog may have witnessed other frogs attempt to raise warnings
or jump out, and seen them marginalized and ignored by the other
frogs.
Technological Optimism.
The frog may understand that there is a problem that could lead
to its demise, but believe that it is not necessary to act because
someone will find a technological solution.
Tyranny of Experts.
Even though the frog may believe it is in danger, the experts
may provide a comforting assessment that makes the frog doubt
its own wisdom.
Turning Down the Heat
There are a number of important steps that can
be taken to turn down the heat on nuclear dangers. Proposals for
moving forward have been set forth in the statement of the Canberra
Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, in the statements
of the generals and admirals and the civilian leaders, and in
the 13 Practical Steps for Nuclear Disarmament set forth in the
2000 Review Conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Turning down the heat on nuclear dangers is primarily
a question of political will. Without political will progress
will continue to be slow to non-existent. With political will
to reduce nuclear dangers and achieve a nuclear weapons free world,
important steps can be taken that would rapidly improve global
security, including the following actions:
1. De-alert all nuclear weapons and de-couple all
nuclear warheads from their delivery vehicles.
2. Declare policies of No First Use of nuclear
weapons against other nuclear weapons states and policies of No
Use against non-nuclear weapons states.
3. Establish international accounting and control
systems for all nuclear weapons and weapons-grade nuclear materials.
4. Reaffirm the commitments to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic
Missile Treaty and cease efforts to violate that Treaty by the
deployment of national or theater missile defenses, and cease
the militarization of space.
5. Sign and ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,
cease laboratory and subcritical nuclear tests designed to modernize
and improve nuclear weapons systems, cease construction of Megajoule
in France and the National Ignition Facility in the US and end
research programs that could lead to the development of pure fusion
weapons, and close the remaining nuclear test sites in Nevada
and Novaya Zemlya.
6. Support existing nuclear weapons free zones,
and establish new ones in the Middle East, Central Europe, North
Asia, Central Asia and South Asia.
7. Commence good faith negotiations to achieve
a Nuclear Weapons Convention requiring the phased elimination
of all nuclear weapons, with provisions for effective verification
and enforcement.
8. Publicly acknowledge the weaknesses and fallibilities
of deterrence: that deterrence is only a theory and is clearly
ineffective against nations whose leaders may be irrational or
suicidal; nor can deterrence assure against accidents, misperceptions,
miscalculations, or terrorists.
9. Publicly acknowledge the illegality of the threat
or use of nuclear weapons under international law as stated by
the International Court of Justice in its 1996 opinion, and further
acknowledge the obligation under international law for good faith
negotiations for nuclear disarmament in all its aspects.
10. Publicly acknowledge the immorality of threatening
to annihilate millions, even hundreds of millions, of people in
the name of national security.
11. Set forth a plan to complete the transition
under international control and monitoring to zero nuclear weapons
by 2020, with agreed upon levels of nuclear disarmament to be
achieved by the NPT Review Conferences in 2005, 2010 and 2015.
12. Begin to reallocate the billions of dollars
currently being spent annually for maintaining nuclear arsenals
($35 billion in the U.S. alone) to improving human health, education
and welfare throughout the world.
Taking the Frog Out of the Pot
Those who put the frog into the pot are not likely
to be the same ones to take the frog out. We need new leadership
and, as Einstein warned, a new way of thinking. There is only
one way out of the pot, and that is by cooperation on a global
scale. Absent such cooperation and the leadership to attain it,
further nuclear proliferation and the use of nuclear weapons by
accident or design are inevitable.
Once the water in the pot has heated up, it is
doubtful that the frog can get out of the pot by itself. The frog's
dilemma can only be resolved by getting it out of the pot or turning
down the heat. To resolve the nuclear dilemma confronting humanity
will require cooperation - cooperation among people, cooperation
among countries. Currently the nuclear weapons states, led by
the United States, are blocking that cooperation. That is why
it is so essential for US citizens to press their government for
leadership in achieving agreement for the verified elimination
of nuclear weapons in all countries. It is also why the leadership
of the middle power countries calling for effective nuclear disarmament
is also so important.
The frog may need help getting out of the pot,
but this help is unlikely to be forthcoming unless it asks for
help. To end the nuclear threat to humanity requires all of us
to raise our voices and demand the elimination of nuclear weapons.
A Final Word
Nuclear weapons are not weapons of war. They are
devices that kill indiscriminately, and their use cannot be confined
to soldiers in combat. Nor is their threat limited in time or
place. It affects humanity across the globe and across time. This
threat, along with the damage nuclear weapons have already done
to the environment, will be our generation's legacy to the future
inhabitants of the planet - if we are able to keep the planet
intact.
Nuclear weapons are the tools of fools and cowards.
Those who promote these evil tools should be removed from leadership.
They are the ones who have kept the frog in the pot and are manipulating
the controls on the heat. They will stay in control until the
people of this planet act in concert to change the rules, reach
accords for cooperative and sustainable development, and end the
nuclear weapons threat to humanity and all life.
The word croak has two meanings. One is the sound
of a frog's voice. The other is slang for "to die."
By recognizing the frog's malaise and using our voices, we have
the possibility to prevent the widespread death and destruction
that will be the predictable result of continuing to base national
security on the threat to use nuclear weapons. If we fail to recognize
the seriousness of the frog's malaise and fail to act on our own
malaise, the result could be tragedy beyond imagination.
In 1955 Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein issued
a manifesto signed by themselves and some of the greatest scientists
of the time. In that manifesto, they stated: "There lies
before us, if we choose, continual progress in happiness, knowledge
and wisdom. Shall we instead choose death, because we cannot forget
our quarrels? We appeal, as human beings to human beings: remember
your humanity and forget the rest. If you can do so, the way lies
open to a new Paradise; if you cannot, there lies before you the
risk of universal death." The choice is still before us.
*David Krieger
is president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation.
Appendix A
Play a Role in Ending the Nuclear Weapons Threat
If you and others do nothing, humanity will eventually
face a nuclear holocaust that in a worst case could end human
life on Earth.
The nuclear weapons threat will not diminish or
go away if good people who care about a sustainable human future
do nothing. If you would like to play a role in ending the nuclear
weapons threat to humanity, I encourage you to take these steps.
1. Educate yourself. A good place to begin is the
Nuclear Age Peace Foundation's web site: www.wagingpeace.org.
At this web site you will find a wealth of information on nuclear
dangers as well as ideas for action. At this site you can sign
up as a free online participating member of the Foundation and
receive the monthly e-newsletter, The Sunflower.
2. Educate others. Spread the word. Help your family
and friends to realize the danger and lack of sustainability of
some nations continuing to rely upon nuclear weapons. You can
send information to others from the Foundation's web site.
3. Take Action. Sign the Appeal to End the Nuclear
Weapons Threat to Humanity, and ask others to sign it. You can
do this online at the above web site. Encourage political leaders
to support the elimination of nuclear weapons and to oppose abrogation
of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty by the United States.
Appendix B
Appeal to End the Nuclear Weapons Threat to Humanity
[This Appeal, initiated by the Nuclear Age Peace
Foundation, has been signed by some of the world's great peace
leaders, including Jimmy Carter, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, the
XIVth Dailai Lama, and Queen Noor of Jordan. The Appeal has been
signed by 37 Nobel Laureates, including 14 Nobel Peace Laureates.]
We cannot hide from the threat that nuclear weapons
pose to humanity and all life. These are not ordinary weapons,
but instruments of mass annihilation that could destroy civilization
and end most life on Earth.
Nuclear weapons are morally and legally unjustifiable.
They destroy indiscriminately - soldiers and civilians; men, women
and children; the aged and the newly born; the healthy and the
infirm.
The obligation to achieve nuclear disarmament "in
all its aspects," as unanimously affirmed by the International
Court of Justice, is at the heart of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
More than ten years have now passed since the end
of the Cold War, and yet nuclear weapons continue to cloud humanity's
future. The only way to assure that nuclear weapons will not be
used again is to abolish them.
We, therefore, call upon the leaders of the nations
of the world and, in particular, the leaders of the nuclear weapons
states to act now for the benefit of all humanity by taking thefollowing
steps:
De-alert all nuclear weapons and de-couple
all nuclear warheads from their delivery vehicles.
Reaffirm commitments to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic
Missile Treaty and ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
Commence good faith negotiations to
achieve a Nuclear Weapons Convention requiring the phased elimination
of all nuclear weapons, with provisions foreffective verification
and enforcement.
Declare policies of No First Use of
nuclear weapons against other nuclear weapons states and policies
of No Use against non-nuclear weapons states.Reallocate resources
from the tens of billions of dollars currently being spent for
maintaining nuclear arsenals to improving human health, education
and welfare throughout the world.
Appendix C
13 Practical Steps for Nuclear DisarmamentThe following
text is excerpted from the 2000 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review
ConferenceFinal Document.
The Conference agrees on the following practical
steps for the systemic and progressive efforts to implement Article
VI of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and
paragraphs 3 and 4(c) of the 1995 Decision on "Principles
and Objectives for Nuclear Non Proliferation and Disarmament":
1. The importance and urgency of signatures and
ratifications, without delay and without conditions and in accordance
with constitutional processes, to achieve the early entry into
force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
2. A moratorium on nuclear-weapon-test explosions
or any other nuclear explosions pending entry into force of that
Treaty.
3. The necessity of negotiations in the Conference
on Disarmament on a non-discriminatory, multilateral and internationally
and effectively verifiable treaty banning the production of fissile
material for nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices
in accordance with the statement of the Special Coordinator in
1995 and the mandatecontained therein, taking into consideration
both nuclear disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation objectives.
The Conference on Disarmament is urged to agree on a programme
of work which includes the immediate commencement of negotiations
on such a treaty with a view to their conclusion within five years.
4. The necessity of establishing in the Conference
on Disarmament an appropriate subsidiary body with a mandate to
deal with nuclear disarmament. The Conference on Disarmament is
urged to agree on a programme of work which includes the immediate
establishment of such a body.
5. The principle of irreversibility to apply to
nuclear disarmament, nuclear and other related arms control and
reduction measures.
6. An unequivocal undertaking by the nuclear-weapon
States to accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals
leading to nuclear disarmament to which all States parties are
committed under Article VI.
7. The early entry into force and full implementation
of START II and the conclusion of START III as soon as possible
while preserving and strengthening the ABM Treaty as a cornerstone
of strategic stability and as a basis for further reductions of
strategic offensive weapons, in accordance with its provisions.
8. The completion and implementation of the Trilateral
Initiative between the United States of America, the Russian Federation
and the International Atomic Energy Agency.
9. Steps by all the nuclear-weapon States leading
to nuclear disarmament in a way thatpromotes international stability,
and based on the principle of undiminished security for all:
- Further efforts by the nuclear-weapon States
to reduce their nuclear arsenals unilaterally.
- Increased transparency by the nuclear-weapon
States with regard to the nuclear weapons capabilities and the
implementation of agreements pursuant to Article VI and as a voluntary
confidence-building measure to support further progress on nuclear
disarmament.
- The further reduction of non-strategic nuclear
weapons, based on unilateral initiatives and as an integral part
of the nuclear arms reduction and disarmament process.
- Concrete agreed measures to further reduce the
operational status of nuclear weapons systems.
- A diminishing role for nuclear weapons in security
policies to minimize the risk that theseweapons ever be used and
to facilitate the process of their total elimination.
- The engagement as soon as appropriate for all
the nuclear-weapon States in the process leading to the total
elimination of their nuclear weapons.
10. Arrangements by all nuclear-weapon States to
place, as soon as practicable, fissile material designated by
each of them as no longer required for military purposes under
IAEA or other relevant international verification and arrangements
for the disposition of such material in peaceful purposes, to
ensure that such material remains permanently outside of the military
programmes.
11. Reaffirmation that the ultimate objective of
the efforts of States in the disarmament process is general and
complete disarmament under effective international control.
12. Regular reports, within the framework of the
NPT strengthened review process, by all States parties on the
implementation of Article VI and paragraph 4 (c) of the 1995 Decision
on "Principles and Objectives for Nuclear Non-Proliferation
and Disarmament", and recalling the Advisory Opinion of the
International Court of Justice of 8 July 1996.
13. The further development of the verification
capabilities that will be required to provideassurance of compliance
with nuclear disarmament agreements for the achievement and maintenance
of a nuclear-weapon-free world.
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