Preventing An Accidental Armageddon
by Dean Babst*, February 2002

Overview

"There is no doubt that, if the people of the world were more fully aware of the inherent danger of nuclear weapons and the consequences of their use, they would reject them." This conclusion appeared in the 1996 report of the Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons.

Although international relations have changed drastically since the end of the Cold War, both Russia and the U.S. continue to keep the bulk of their nuclear missiles on high-level alert. The U.S. and Russia remain ready to fire a total of more than 5,000 nuclear weapons at each other within half an hour. These warheads, if used, could destroy humanity including those firing the missiles. A defense that destroys the defender makes no sense. Why then do Russia, the U.S., and other countries spend vast sums each year to maintain such defenses? Since 400 average size strategic nuclear weapons could destroy humanity, most of the 5,000 nuclear weapons that Russia and the U.S. have set for hair-trigger release, present the world with its greatest danger -- an enormous overkill, the potential for an accidental Armageddon.

Consequences Never Considered

When General Lee Butler became head of the US Strategic Air Command (SAC), he went to the SAC Headquarters in Omaha, Nebraska to inspect the 12,000 targets. He was shocked to find dozens of warheads aimed at Moscow (as the Soviets once targeted Washington). The US planners had no grasp of the explosions, firestorms and radiation from such overkill. "We were totally out of touch with reality," Butler said. "The war plan, its calculations and consequences never took into account anything but cost and damage. Radiation was never considered."

No Long-Range Plan

Robert McNamara, former Secretary of Defense under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, says there was no long-range war plan. The arms race was mainly a race of numbers. Neither Russia or the U.S. wanted to get behind. Each side strove to build the greatest number. "The total far exceeded the requirements of any conceivable war plan," according to McNamara.

Since Russia and the U.S. have each built enormous nuclear weapon overkills with little thought as to the consequence of their use, it is imperative to assess what would happen if these weapons were used. Humanity's fate could depend upon it.

It is proposed that a Conference on the Consequence of Nuclear Weapons Use be held soon. Conference news reports could increase public awareness of the dangers. It is also hoped that such a conference could help create a Consequence Assessment Center within the United Nations. By working together, many countries would have confidence in the accuracy of the assessments. The cost of consequence studies could be relatively small and could be done fairly quickly.

A Preliminary Assessment of the Consequences

A preliminary assessment of the consequences of nuclear weapons use in relation to the number of nuclear weapons used show them to be far more destructive than most people realize. Let’s examine the effects of one nuclear weapon, hundreds of nuclear weapons and, as the SAC had planned and targeted for use, thousands of nuclear weapons.

One Nuclear Weapon

One average size U.S. strategic nuclear warhead can be carried in an average size truck. Such a nuclear warhead has an explosive power equal to 20 Hiroshima size nuclear bombs, or to 250,000 tons of dynamite or 25,000 trucks each carrying 10 tons of dynamite. An average size Russian strategic nuclear warhead has an explosive power equal to 32 Hiroshima size bombs, or 40,000 trucks bombs each carrying 10 tons of dynamite. By comparison, the terrorists' truck bombs exploded at the World Trade Center in New York and the federal building in Oklahoma City each had an explosive force equal to about 10 tons of dynamite.

If one average size Russian strategic nuclear warhead was detonated over Washington, D.C., it could vaporize Congress, the White House, the Pentagon, and headquarters for many national programs. One U.S. nuclear warhead detonated over Moscow could be similarly devastating. Is it any wonder that General Butler was shocked to find dozens of warheads aimed at Moscow?

If one nuclear bomb were exploded over New York City it could vaporize the United Nations headquarters, communication centers for NBC, CBS, ABC, Fox, etc., the New York Stock Exchange, world bank centers, international transportation centers and other centers for international trade and investments where billions of dollars are being exchanged daily. A nuclear explosion would also leave the areas hit highly radioactive and unusable for a long time. Where the radioactive fallout from the mushroom cloud would land in the world would depend upon the direction of the wind and rain conditions at the time of the explosion.

Hundreds Of Nuclear Weapons

The late Dr. Carl Sagan and his associates, in their extensive studies, found that a nuclear explosive force equal to 100 million tons of dynamite (100 megatons) could produce enough smoke and fine dust to create a Nuclear Winter over the world leaving few survivors. A nuclear bomb blast can produce heat intensities of 3,000 to 4,000 degrees Centigrade at ground zero which, in turn, could start giant flash fires leaving large cities and forests burning with no one to fight them. Also, nuclear explosions can lift an enormous quantity of fine soil particles into the atmosphere, more than 100,000 tons of fine dust for every megaton exploded in a surface burst.

Since an average size U.S. strategic nuclear warhead has an explosive power equal to 250,000 tons of dynamite it would take 400 warheads to have an explosive power equal to 100 megatons or enough to destroy the world. It would take less Russian strategic nuclear warheads to destroy the world since they are more powerful. Any survivors in the world would have to contend with radioactive fallout, toxic gases such as carbon monoxide, cyanides, dioxins, furans, etc. from burning cities, and increased ozone burnout.

Thousands of Nuclear Weapons

Russia and the U.S. have more than 90 percent of the nuclear weapons in the world. Many of their nuclear missiles are set on high-level alert so that within half an hour of receiving a warning of an attack more than 5,000 nuclear weapons could be launched. While the U.S. and Russia no longer have their nuclear weapons aimed at each other, they can re-target each other within minutes.

Analyzing Overkill

The consequence of nuclear weapons use needs to be widely publicized to help efforts to rid the world of nuclear weapons for the following reasons:

Overkill Doesn't Deter. Being able to destroy another country more than once serves no purpose for deterrence. How many times can one country destroy another?

Overkill Is Self-Destructive. The larger the number of nuclear weapons used to carry out a "first strike" or a "launch-on warning" defense, the greater the certainty of self-destruction.

Overkill Increases Danger Of Accidental War. The more nuclear weapons there are in the world, the greater is the probability of their accidental use.

Overkill Encourages Nuclear Proliferation By Example.

Overkill Wastes Money. Spending billions of dollars per year to maintain an ability to destroy the world is the worst possible waste of money.

Accidental Nuclear Wars

The Canberra Commission stated "… that nuclear weapons can be retained in perpetuity and never used, accidentally or by decision, defies credibility. The only complete defense is the elimination of nuclear weapons and assurance that they will never be produced again." The Ministers for Foreign Affairs of Brazil, Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, Slovenia, South Africa and Sweden, when formulating the New Agenda Coalition, agreed with the Canberra Commission statement.

If any one of the following three near-accidental nuclear wars had occurred it could have been the end of humanity.

A Practice Tape In 1979

On November 9, 1979, a practice tape was accidentally played on a computer which was at that moment was the operational one at NORAD headquarters. The picture showed a massive missile attack coming from the USSR towards the United States. Fortunately it took only 6 minutes of the 15 minutes available to learn it was a mistake.

An Unreliable Satellite In 1983

On September 26 , 1983, a Soviet Oko satellite signaled the launch of a U.S. minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile. The Soviet Union was a mere 20 minutes away from a nuclear strike against the U.S., when the officer in charge decided that the alarm was a mistake. The officer in charge of the early warning system had less than 10 minutes to analyze the information before reporting the mistake to the Soviet leadership. Later, the investigating commission was horrified to learn about the unreliability of the Oko satellites.

A False Alarm In 1995

On January 25, 1995, an accidental war almost occurred. Russia came within eight minutes of launching its missiles at the U.S. The false warning was due to the launching of a Norwegian rocket conducting a scientific probe of the northern lights. Fortunately, part of the way into its flight, the rocket turned away from Russia.

Early Warning Systems Are Now Deteriorating

General Lee Butler makes a very crucial point when he says, "The Russian command and early warning system is in a great state of decline; about two-thirds of the satellites they relied on for early warning capability are inactive or failing. They're experiencing false alarms now on a routine basis, and I shudder to think about morale and discipline of their rocket forces. There are worrisome aspects to all of that." He said that he is puzzled and dismayed that our government isn't even addressing the problem.

The U.S. also has its problems with its early warning system. The last three rockets launched to maintain the U.S. satellite missile warning system failed.

Growing Y2K Problems

Clearing up Y2K problems could be a large task. For example, the US Department of Defense has more than 1.5 million computers, 28,000 systems, and 10,000 networks. Even if one country were to get all the bugs out of its computer systems by year end, we still need to be concerned about Y2K bugs in other systems.

Hacker Problems

A Pentagon-sponsored study concluded that military computers and communications systems are 'increasingly compromised' and vulnerable to attack by hackers, which could result in their putting out incorrect information about foreign missile launches.

Growing Dependence On Technology

Humanity's safety is becoming more and more dependent upon technology. Besides the technological dangers noted above, there are others that need to be guarded against, e.g., Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP), "Dead Hand" control of missiles, High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP), Hazards of Electromagnetic Radiation to Ordnance (HERO). Technical errors in one system may trigger errors in others.

Reduction Without An Agreement

In order to get the nuclear arms reduction process moving, either country or both could start by de-alerting and eliminating some of their nuclear overkill without waiting for an arms reduction agreement. In September 1991, President George Bush set an example for eliminating nuclear weapons without waiting for an agreement. On the advice of General Lee Butler, head of the US Strategic Air Command at the time, President Bush ordered an immediate stand-down on many U.S. strategic bombers and some strategic missiles without waiting for an agreement with Russia. Within a week, however, President Gorbachev reciprocated by ordering the deactivation of more than 500 land-based rockets and six strategic submarines. In the subsequent months, both countries withdrew thousands of shorter-range tactical nuclear warheads and placed them in storage.

Reasons for Hope and Action

While the current slow effort to reduce nuclear arms is a reason for concern, there are also reasons for hope. In some areas, awareness of the danger is growing. Abolition 2000 is a global network that has grown to more than 1,300 citizen action groups throughout the world working together for the phased elimination of nuclear weapons. In just three months, from Nov. 1997 to Jan. 1998, 13 million signatures to sign a treaty to eliminate nuclear weapons were gathered in Japan.

There are other very important positive forces at work for peace. Vice President Al Gore and the Russian Prime Minister for the past five years have been chairing the Joint Commission on Economic and Technological Cooperation. The Commission has grown into a bilateral government conglomerate, with officials at many levels working on problems of energy, health, agriculture, investment, space and the environment.

General Butler said the world can immediately and inexpensively improve security by taking nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert.This action would also provide a better atmosphere for reaching an agreement to eliminate all nuclear weapons in the world.

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*Dean Babst is a retired government research scientist and Coordinator of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation's Accidental Nuclear War Studies Program. In the development of this article, appreciation is extended for the helpful suggestions of David Krieger, President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, Bob Aldridge who heads the Pacific Life Research Center, and Andy Baltzo, the Founder of the Mt. Diablo (California) Peace Center.

References and Notes

1. Green, Robert D. "Zero Nuclear Weapons," Middle Power Initiative, Cambridge. Mass., 1998.

2. Blair, Bruce C., Feiveson, Harold A. and Huppe, Frank.."Taking Nuclear Weapons off Hair-Trigger Alert," Scientific American, Nov. 1997.

3. Grady, Sandy. "Can nuclear genie be stuffed back in the bottle," San Jose Mercury News, Dec. 8, 1986.

4. McNamara, Robert S., Blundering into Disaster, Pantheon Books, N.Y. 1986.

5. Bob Aldridge, who heads the Pacific Life Research Center, at Santa Clara, California. is a former design engineer for Polaris and Trident missile systems said a nuclear warhead with an explosive power equal to 250,000 tons of dynamite can be carried in a average size truck.

6. Norris, Robert S. and Arkin, William, "U.S. Nuclear Stockpile," Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists, NRDC Nuclear Notebooks for July/Aug. 1996, Nov./Dec. 1996, and May/June 1997. The number of Hiroshima bombs per average strategic nuclear warhead was calculated by dividing the explosive capacity of the Hiroshima bomb, as equal to 12,500 tons of dynamite into the size of the explosive in the warhead. The estimate that the US and Russia have more than 90 percent of the nuclear weapons in the world is based on data in these series of articles.

7. Sagan, Carl. The Nuclear Winter, Council for a Livable World Education Fund, Boston, MA, 1983.

8. Nelan, Bruce W. "Nuclear Disarray, We're Not Supposed To Worry About Armageddon Anymore, But Who Is Safe When The Russian Are Losing Control Over Their Arsenal?" Times, May 19, 1997.

9. "Joint Ministerial Declaration: Toward A Nuclear-Weapons-Free-World: The Need for a New Agenda, June 9," Program For Promoting Nuclear Proliferation, 3rd Quarter 1998.

10. Phillips, Alan E. "Matter of Preventive Medicine," Peace Research, August 1998.

11. "Twenty Minutes From Nuclear War," The Sunflower, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, Oct. 1998, No. 17.

12. Scheer, Robert, "Cold War's End Leaves Danger Of Nuclear War," Los Angeles Times, April 13, 1999.

13. Dunn, Marcia, "New satellites up in smoke," San Francisco Chronicle, Feb. 26, 1999.

14. Brock, Jack L.et.al. Defense Computers--Year 2000 Computer Threatens DOD Operations, U.S. General Accounting Office Operations, Washington D.C., April 1998, p.1.

15. "Hackers Attack on Pentagon, San Francisco Chronicle, Feb. 26, 1998.

16. Krieger, David. A Journey of Hope: Hiroshima, Nagasaki and Okinawa. Waging Peace Worldwide Vol. 8 No. 1; Spring 1998. Available from the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, Santa Barbara, California.

17. Lippman, Thomas W. "Gore Carves Unique Post With U.S.-Russia Collaboration," Washington Post, Washington, D.C., March 14, 1998.

18. Schell, Jonathan, "The Gift Of Time," The Nation, February 9, 1998.